next »

[nutballs]

I read an ENOURMOUS amount of tech related news.
Although there have been quite a few things that have been tipping me off that a new bubble is forming, there were 3 specific things lately.
$6 billion offered for groupon.
$100 million to pandora.
All the web company ads in the superbowl.

Is the next bubble starting?

If so, what's the tech du jour.

[perkiset]

You're knee deep in it babe.

[nop_90]

Always a bubble.
The rich have to put the money from all of the bank bailouts into something.
After that one pops maybe the gov't can bail them out again

[Bompa]

Business to business bartering would go over nicely imo.

[walrus]

I have a hunch that the ipv6 switch will indirectly trigger a lot of unforseen things, going from 1080p streaming becoming mainstream due to new hardware/tech upgrades in newer generation routers. to even the coffee machine having a public IP. Is this a bubble ? No, but it's one of the many factors. Or maybe I'm way off.

[isthisthingon]

I'm not so sure.  If a new bubble was forming we'd see a less anemic IPO frequency.  We're not even close to the red-hot action happening over ten years ago.  The big stories today are the big players securing their futures with panicky over valuations of strategic acquisitions.  It's more about securing future dominance for the gorillas than a surplus of bubbly start-ups I think 

Of course, if by "bubble" you mean your personal stock portfolio then I'd ask what the hell you're doing playing the stock market in the first place! 

[perkiset]

I think it is conceivable that the current patent wars and increase in stocks like AAPL, as well as strategic alliances like M$ and Nokia point to the possibility of a new tech expansion, if not a bubble. The huge land grab related to tablets and personal data devices is very intriguing, as is the Take It To The Cloud push from M$. That's why I commented that NBs is smack dab in it. Apple looks to be pushing to store all your media for free at their new data center. That's all quite interesting to me and denotes a rather sea change of attitude - albeit, one that's been coming for the last 2-3 years and still has a ways to go IMO.

I think that the IPO point, ITTO, is well aimed - I just believe we'll see more of that later. The IPO party usually starts after there's enough buzz and entrenched players that the money guys understand it and can sell it to Grandma as an equity. More specifically, a non-dividend growth fund sort of equity. That's where your real leveraging and gamble starts taking place. It'll be another couple years, I think, before anything with the word Cloud it it will be an instant hit on the street as an IPO. It's just too, well, foggy for the unwashed masses to grok. Remember Joe Kennedy's line - "When even shoeshine boys are giving you stock tips, it’s time to sell" in other words, it takes an idea long enough for the masses to get into it - then the common people all think they're going to get rich, leverage themselves and Poof. Bubble and bubble carnage.

My thinking is to invest in companies that get the notion of what's going on, much more than companies that are building technology for it. Folks that think their going to break in with a new device are fooling themselves. This is becoming a war of ecosystem (Ballmer and Nokia CEO said as much just the other day). Border's expected bankruptcy today or tomorrow is also indicative of the final straw for certain types of media. Email has killed snail mail. Downloadable music has killed the Sam Goody's of the world. Amazon as a content merchant, followed by devices like Kindle and Nook and software like iBooks are rapidly eroding what's left of the bricks and mortar bookstores. Netflix has killed Blockbuster bricks and mortar. They just don't know it yet.

Let's go one step further. Why do I want to *own* a book? If I buy one from Borders to read on their device, and then they go tits-up (like they're doing) then what happens to my content? Have I lost it? Will it transfer to a Kindle? This is a real problem with all forms of digital content - even Apple, with cash reserves and growth that is silly cannot be guaranteed to always be around - in other words, my music, TV Shows and books are at risk. So why own at all? That'll be the next step I think, and where the cloud really makes the difference. When people realize that *control* is more important than *ownership* then we will have the real shift. IF I can pay (x) per month and have access to anything I want, then why would I own it? If the company goes away, I'll just switch. The offering may be different, but I'll still be able to get what I want. Or perhaps my *ownership* will be pointers rather than possession. Consider that when I buy gold, it's mine - but I keep it in a safe place with some company that I rent space from. I don't have it in physical proximity to me, but it is still mine. My notion of "ownership" tags along with my legacy feelings of "It's Mine!" but in reality, I'm simply controlling gold that is sitting in someone else's locker. Hell, all I probably have is a piece of paper that SAYS I own it and a reference to a portion of some stack somewhere. Perhaps all media things will be more like that.

In any case, folks that assist with the process of geographic abstraction and the lessening need for hardware, ownership and storage will win. If I can take ALL my books, music, movies with me on a trip to Europe, rather than just what will fit on my iPad, I win. That's a ways away, but I think that's where it will all be. (Which, as a side note is why I laugh at all the push towards a USB port on an iPad - who wants to carry MORE with them, like a hard drive - the point is to carry less and control/access more). The next step is to actually put processing into the cloud, which, of course, is what Nuts and I are doing and is even more difficult to get your arms around. But that will eventually be the pointy tip of the money iceberg as well.

[isthisthingon]

>Why do I want to *own* a book?

Precisely. Owning a book is for bookshelf agnostic books made of paper. They'll last as long as you can lug them around between moves and assuming they don't catch fire. This is still more risky than having an ongoing option of various professional services that have all books available for viewing - not "owning."
When I was looking into getting a Kindle and learned more about their proprietary format which prevents transfer to other devices I thought 

This coupled with Amazon's attempt to get me to buy books from them that I own and store them on their virtual bookshelf, of which I have a small slice, is distasteful at best. But a reader that simply allowed you to view all books, perhaps charging monthly or by time spent reading, would be awesome, imo. The problem is with the dilution of profits between publishing companies and their authors. I think the business of being a writer is converging very similarly to being a professional musician. What travels well in the form of information is increasingly becoming a bad place to hope for direct income, unless your continued output is in ongoing demand such as with software 

[perkiset]

Agree, remuneration for content creators is becoming a problem. And if there's just no revenue in creating content then it will become less and less attractive.

I am really looking forward to seeing what Apple's got up its sleeve regarding Lala. The relationship between the publishing houses and the distributors has never been more problematic, and Apple is at the forefront of the pain. A populace that wants more for less, Apple wants to profit and the houses want to protect their OWN profits as well as that of their authors - because without strong creators the houses have nothing (of course, neither do distributors).

A rental model may make sense, but that's a tough sell for the American public - a public that's been told forever that ownership is the paramount of control and the illusion of wealth. A rental model would have the benefit of fitting *somewhat* within the current financial structures, moving money to the original author. It's working for NetFlix, and even the Apple store is seeing an uptick in people renting shows rather than owning them. How long before that moves to music or books? Personally I have no problem with the idea of renting a book, reading it and letting it go - no need to have it in my iPad/computer/backups etc if I know where I can go get it again. But there are a lot of paper snobs that will not want to let the visceral experience of books go away.