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Author Topic: Human race on the verge of a massive upgrade  (Read 3843 times)
isthisthingon
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« on: October 14, 2009, 09:26:53 AM »

 ROFLMAO  I don't know enough about his assertions to refute them but they seem silly to sleepy itto.  If I'm wrong please enlighten me Grin

http://www.networkworld.com/news/2009/101309-human-race-upgrade.html?source=NWWNLE_nlt_daily_am_2009-10-14
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« Reply #1 on: October 14, 2009, 10:03:39 AM »

I think he is full of shit  ROFLMAO
Not because he is stupid, but for the exact opposite reason.

Bottom line is 99.9% of people are stupid and dislike change  ROFLMAO
Also people are not rational Smiley
Prime example of this is qwerty, basically designed at the time to be the most inefficient layout for typewritters.
That shows how people dislike change Smiley.

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isthisthingon
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« Reply #2 on: October 14, 2009, 10:40:13 AM »

>change

Completely agree.  But I think one of his major missed points relates to economics.  Anything based on "in 10 years $1,000 will buy you x amount of processing power" completely ignores macro economics.  If the dollar falls far enough what's the processing power equation going to be?  Or, if people aren't buying it, who's going to produce it?

He's an idealist and assumes people will choose positive change, or at least be able to recognize it when it slaps them in the face  ROFLMAO
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perkiset
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« Reply #3 on: October 14, 2009, 10:57:33 AM »

I think his point is more metaphorical: People seem to have a sweet spot for (about) what they will pay relative to inflation and the strength of the dollar ie., the price of a suit, an album, or RAM has in many ways stayed static over the last 20 years: not the value or the actual product purchased mind you, but the price. So $1000 is being used here as a placeholder for "what people are willing to pay" in my opinion rather than a real dollar amount.

Kurzweil is fun, I've read him for a long time and also played keyboards that have been of his construction. Brilliant, way way out there. Pretty certain I'm unready to accept the singularity as a forgone conclusion, but I can get behind the notion that we may become responsible for our own evolution.
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isthisthingon
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« Reply #4 on: October 14, 2009, 11:30:08 AM »

Quote
I think his point is more metaphorical: People seem to have a sweet spot for (about) what they will pay relative to inflation and the strength of the dollar ie., the price of a suit, an album, or RAM has in many ways stayed static over the last 20 years: not the value or the actual product purchased mind you, but the price. So $1000 is being used here as a placeholder for "what people are willing to pay" in my opinion rather than a real dollar amount.

Agreed.  But regardless of the actual dollar amount, I think supply and more importantly demand influence what's created, produced, sold, etc.  So it's going to be really hard to pry people out of any comfortable "good enough" safe-zone that could be dramatically improved on if they were just willing to take risks and accept change.

But he's a fun read in any case Smiley
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perkiset
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« Reply #5 on: October 14, 2009, 11:33:10 AM »

Or to simply add enough immediate, superficial and obvious value that you MUST HAVE IT.

Consider: if you join us in the virtual world via brain assimilation, you can have a 12" dick! Great hair! Big muscles! No longer will you be bound to the pathetic existence that is "you" - you can finally be digitally attractive!

"I'd buy THAT for a dollar..."
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« Reply #6 on: October 14, 2009, 11:40:06 AM »

at this point, the only way to evolve is through human intervention.

Think about it.
100 years ago, people died from bladder infections., but thanks to antibiotics, nope.
10000 years ago, faster runners lived when being chased by a lion.
etc
etc
etc

The problem is, that our technology is currently holding us back, and preventing progress to becoming "better". Of course, thats 1000's of years, so noone actually cares. BUT, frankly, I want better eyes and ears. Maybe a heart that actually works in a predictable manner. And in my case specifically, I WANT NEW FUCKING LUNGS, because these bags I have SUCK BALLS. (perk knows why. But for others, I have a chronic cough for almost a year now...)

But here is the kicker. IF we embrace a self directed, instantaneous evolution, we as a species will become MORE DIVERSE.
Yes you will have the :i want a 12" dick and big muscles and great hair: crowd, but you will also have the rebels and normals. You will have people like me who want upgrades like seeing other wavelengths and built in computers, but others who will just want a working kidney. Though frankly the surgery is no fun. I want magical implants that just teleport in.
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« Reply #7 on: October 14, 2009, 04:49:29 PM »

But I can get behind the notion that we may become responsible for our own evolution.
We have beeen responsible for our own evolution the moment the human race first gained conciousness.
The moment that humans became aware of thier environment, and could change it / modify it to thier needs/wants.

Our technology is not holding us back, but our concepts of what is right or wrong is holding us back.
Again these concepts differ from society, but as society becomes less diverse, the human race will become less diverse.

Every society goes thru a life cycle of sorts.
Arround the mid-point of the society they become very "inventive", new ideas spring forth etc.
For example 1000 years ago the fundamentalism moslems where the great thinkers etc.

Towards the end of the society, they start to stop innovation purely for "religous" reasons.
In China 1000 years ago when they invented steam engines, had regular oceanic passage service, an oil industry etc.
The emperor (god) decided all this shit was evil, and ordered all work on it destroyed.

Today in america we see a small but vocal minority. They are saying research should be stopped in certain areas because of "moral" reasons.
Worse yet certain scientific teaching should not be taught because of religous reasons etc.

That is not to say USA will collapse tomorrow. The roman empire did not really fall appart till the fall of constantinople in the 1400s.
So basically it lasted 1000 years in basically a frozen state. But the western part of the empire collapsed in only 100-200 years.
Also maybe USA will not collapse. In the case of China and India, when the white people first encountered them they where trapped in this mind thought.
As we have seen, the white people nicely woke up the dragon by kicking it Smiley.

Again I am not against "religous" teaching. But I am against brainwashing  ROFLMAO
The bible contains one of the first accounts of evolution /  genetic manipulation of livestock Smiley
Also the bible primarily is a history book. Like all history books it justifies the acts of the winners Smiley
So when the 13 tribes slaughtered, burned and raped 100K people, literally did genocide on entire countries, god was happy.
I imagion if hitler would have one the war, history books would have shown how god was happy for doing his will and wiping out infidels.

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« Reply #8 on: October 14, 2009, 09:57:53 PM »

ROFLMAO  I don't know enough about his assertions to refute them but they seem silly to sleepy itto.  If I'm wrong please enlighten me Grin

http://www.networkworld.com/news/2009/101309-human-race-upgrade.html?source=NWWNLE_nlt_daily_am_2009-10-14

I think he is right on.

The future is unimaginable to most of us.

He's a visionary.

Bompa
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« Reply #9 on: October 14, 2009, 10:31:11 PM »

sci fi eventually comes true. pretty much always, in 1 form or another.

I mean, for the love of pete, they are going to be testing some theories of Hyperspace Travel with the new LHC when it goes live...
computers. tv. cell phones. artificial hearts. it was all sci fi once.
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« Reply #10 on: October 14, 2009, 11:23:00 PM »

Hehe. Kurzweil.. he's the man Smiley

The problem is not technology, it's people. Nop said it already but he was talking about morals, religions and shit like that. I think it goes much deeper than that. First of all, if there's any risk, people decline unless it's something that keeps them alive or they can live with the risk. Many times estimating the impact of that risk is skewed which leads to over-thought and over-cautious decisions. For example when they finally release the pill that's been in testing for sometime that expands human life span, a lot of people will decline because they are afraid of longterm effects. It's ok fear but it's mostly not very logic thinking. If you are afraid of longterm effects, lemme tell you, you better not eat 90% of that shit you are eating right now every day. And you know, cars are moving really fast and when they hit you, it's gonna hurt bad. Next step is resistance for change. People resist change because they don't want anything to interrupt their boring daily routines and because changes are usually associated with bad things, it's natural fear but it will be a massive obstacle for whole human race.

The key to all this is better knowledge distribution. There's countless of examples how people have changed their ways and beliefs when they were taught fact based knowledge of something. Majority of the people are not stupid, they are just uninformed about all the possibilities. There's so many just plain wrong assumptions and beliefs in the United States right now because of religion and politics. Same goes to rest of the world, maybe not as bad but still. Except China and Korea of course.

And when there's information people don't know, there's money to be made. I paid $999 to get my genes mapped and now it costs $195. I knew it all along thought but I was willing to pay the price to get it done early. Now what most people don't know is that genemapping isn't all that hard. The hardest part was to innovate the machines that actually mapped the sample. Now it's just processing numbers against numbers. That's it, no complicated tests, no manual labor. The problem is distribution and hard-to-understand form. Unless medical discoveries are converted into well-written articles in popular medias, nobody except medical community knows about them.

Then there's the final problem and that's "I don't care". People are so comfortable now that they don't even want these changes. They are not affected with climate change, poverty or any other problems, yet. They just go to work, go home, eat microdinner and watch TV. That's their life and they are "happy" with it. Most of them dream about all the things they would do if they could be rich but because they are spineless fucks, they never do anything about it. They are equivalent of worker bees. They do all the work that needs to be done but they shouldn't have any effect on where human race goes. Sad thing is that these worker bees are majority now and because of economy, human race needs their money to go forward. They can change to people who take control of their lives but they probably won't. So they lack all the perspective to say anything meaningful about any new thing.

So all in all, the problem is us and not the computers. Just look what Nvidia is doing with their GPU processing and how fast they have been able to tenfold the processing power with those. Soon we will have more processing power we can imagine.
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« Reply #11 on: October 15, 2009, 12:50:47 AM »

I know well what you are saying about people's resistance to change, but sometimes
things can "catch on" over the years.

When I was growing up, smoking cigs was extremely cool, now it's looked down on.
I am not talking medical proof of this or that, I am talking about people's attitudes.

We used to call gays "queers" and they were thought to be odd balls, now we
are electing them to public office and letting them adopt children.

True, people don't want to change, but when they see the neighbors change, and
the people on TV change, and ect, ect, over a period of years they want to fit in.

It takes time and this thread is about long term futuristic changes.

The ways in which people will change in the long term future is unimaginable.

Bompa
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« Reply #12 on: October 15, 2009, 01:11:17 AM »

I know well what you are saying about people's resistance to change, but sometimes
things can "catch on" over the years.

When I was growing up, smoking cigs was extremely cool, now it's looked down on.
I am not talking medical proof of this or that, I am talking about people's attitudes.

We used to call gays "queers" and they were thought to be odd balls, now we
are electing them to public office and letting them adopt children.

True, people don't want to change, but when they see the neighbors change, and
the people on TV change, and ect, ect, over a period of years they want to fit in.

It takes time and this thread is about long term futuristic changes.

The ways in which people will change in the long term future is unimaginable.

Bompa

Yeah, I agree and my intention wasn't to say that people never change. You illustrated the point very well. It took THAT long to masses realize that gay people are same as everybody else. Even it was always like that. So my point is that evolving of human race is in the first gear because of misinformed beliefs.
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« Reply #13 on: October 15, 2009, 04:19:50 AM »

The ways in which people will change in the long term future is unimaginable.

Bompa

100% true.
Again for the "queer" thing for example.
Attitudes towards gays changes through out history.
Today gay men are viewed as effeminate, woman like etc.

In ancient Greece it was "macho" to be gay Smiley.
As in going to war with ur gay lover etc Smiley.

What I am talking about is that people basically have the same type of computer brain they had when they lived as cavemen.
The weight problem most westerners have is a prime example.
All the education that being fat is bad for you is not going to work.
Inside human's primitive brain, as long as there is a surplus amount of food, it is most people's natural instinct to eat as much as they can.
Makes sense 10K years ago when u do not know where u next meal is coming from. Today with supermarkets kind of silly.

People's primitive brains are geared towards making rapid often inaccurate decisions.
So as the saying goes first impressions are the most important.
Makes sense in a "primitive society". When I see a strange animal/situation I don't have time to sit arround analyse it etc.
So most snakes are harmless, but lets say 5% are deadly. It makes sense that if i see a snake i assume it deadly and run away.
But the same brain does not work too hot when deciding what stock i should invest in etc.

Quote
True, people don't want to change, but when they see the neighbors change, and
the people on TV change, and ect, ect, over a period of years they want to fit in.
Very important observation. Because of "herd" mentality people want to fit in.
But it goes deeper then that.
People's primitive brain can not tell the difference between what they see on TV and what is "real".
The amount of violent crimes in western society has decreased.
But any survey will tell you that violence is increasing, primarily because TV has 100x more violence then in real life.

911 is a prime example. People in USA where more scared then before the event.
Worst case senario lets say a 911 event happened every year. 3K people would die.
Mainwhile

http://www.car-accidents.com/pages/stats.html
Car Crash Stats: There were nearly 6,420,000 auto accidents in the United States in 2005. The financial cost of these crashes is more than 230 Billion dollars. 2.9 million people were injured and 42,636 people killed. About 115 people die every day in vehicle crashes in the United States -- one death every 13 minutes.
So the increase of risk be terrorist activity is negligable.

"The research tells us that somewhere between 25-50 percent of all motor vehicle crashes in this country really have driver distraction as their root cause."
So basically stopping distraction while people are driving would save in USA 10-20K lives a year. And probably 500K serious injuries.
But since peoples animal brains can't percieve driving as a risk, since the ammount of deaths per road trip are very small, terrorism is a bigger threat Smiley

Anyway I am not picking on USA, just a lot easier to get stats for USA.
We as humans are stupid everywhere Smiley

Not picking on perks. But i find it comical when if apple does something bad it is ok. While if MS does something bad, it is evil.
Or not selling people something based on skin color is wrong, but it is ok not to sell them things on other criteria.

We all are like that Smiley
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« Reply #14 on: October 15, 2009, 05:06:42 AM »

Quote
...So my point is that evolving of human race is in the first gear because of misinformed beliefs.

Well yes, it seems very slow.  However, I think the main point of the article was that
humanity is evolving faster now than centuries ago.  Like every hundred years, man's
ability to grow is much better than previously.

Afterall, our lifetime is barely a blink on the large scale of time.

I guess you are correct regarding the reason: misinformed beliefs or lack of knowledge.


@nop, I don't think of the brain as being primitive, but I know where you're coming from.

Some scientists say that we are only using 10% of our brains?

How can we use the other 90%?

Could intuition play a part helping man to be more wise and to evolve faster?

Bompa
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