HTML 5.0 marks the beginning of the eventual end for Flash. However, Adobe was smart enough to get a gigantic pool of talented programmers using
Flex for virtually all of their cool, slick web development. And we all know what happens when a world filled with, for example, Java gurus continues to influence the investors.
Here's a nice post on the subject of Flash, Flex and how Apple factors in:
http://www.phparch.com/2010/03/03/can-flex-save-flash/Why Flex?
For this particular project, the client had given us complete freedom in choosing both frontend and backend technologies. For the latter, we chose PHP—it’s perfect for what, in the end, amounts to a simple data-manipulation system. The three obvious choices for the former—where the real heavy lifting of this project takes place—were JavaScript/HTML, Silverlight and Flash/Flex. I chose Flex because I felt that the tool, Flex Builder, would make a difference in the speed of development, which was important because the project was time sensitive. I knew the project could have been done in JavaScript/HTML (except possibly for the video), but the combination of my rusty JavaScipt skills along with the absence of a good tool like Flex Builder made the choice for me. By the same token, I have never worked with Silverlight and, while I would love to do a project with it, I didn’t have time on this project to learn a totally new language.
The point of the above preamble was to show that I feel that Flex and Flash are both still useful technologies. The question is, how much longer will Flash be useful and can Flex extend that useful lifetime?
Apple vs. Adobe
As I pointed in Let’s get all the facts on HTML5 whether you like Flash or not, you cannot deny the fact that it filled an important gap up till now as HTML, CSS and JavaScript just were not up to the task of rich UI and things like video.
No one has been beating the drum the anti-Flash drum more than Apple. With it’s top management reportedly claiming that Flash is buggy and performs poorly, Apple has allegedly denied Adobe access to the iPhone and iPad like a spoiled child protecting a favorite toy. If true, Apple’s attacks on Adobe are especially grievous since if Adobe had not been so supportive of Mac in the early days—producing top quality graphics tools for Mac first and giving Microsoft and Windows users the cold shoulder—Apple and the Mac platform would not be enjoying the loyalty of the graphic design community. It is disheartening that Apple seems willing to forget its friends when it’s convenient. Even when it’s pointed out than many of Apple’s arguments against Flash are specious at best, they continue to liken Flash to floppy disks.