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Author Topic: There's no chance that the iPhone is going to get any significant market share.  (Read 2269 times)
rcjordan
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« on: December 01, 2009, 03:56:03 PM »

“There's no chance that the iPhone is going to get any significant market share. No chance. It's a $500 subsidized item. They may make a lot of money. But if you actually take a look at the 1.3 billion phones that get sold, I’d prefer to have our software in 60% or 70% or 80% of them, than I would to have 2% or 3%, which is what Apple might get.”
Steve Ballmer, Microsoft CEO, 30 April 2007

What critics were saying about Steve Jobs' smartphone in the months before it launched

http://brainstormtech.blogs.fortune.cnn.com/2009/12/01/the-great-iphone-death-watch/
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perkiset
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« Reply #1 on: December 01, 2009, 04:49:49 PM »

ROFLMAO

Cripes, the M$ boys just never seem to get it right, huh? First Gates and the intertubes and now Balmer showing his total lack of understanding.

I suppose he thinks his stores are going to be a wild success as well. Remind me not to purchase stock based on his recommendations...
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« Reply #2 on: December 01, 2009, 09:09:41 PM »

“There's no chance that the iPhone is going to get any significant market share. No chance. It's a $500 subsidized item. They may make a lot of money. But if you actually take a look at the 1.3 billion phones that get sold, I’d prefer to have our software in 60% or 70% or 80% of them, than I would to have 2% or 3%, which is what Apple might get.”
Steve Ballmer, Microsoft CEO, 30 April 2007
It all depends on what tactic you are taking.
The 3% figure is probably accurate. (if u count total cell phones).

Anyway outlined in this article why iphone would be stupid to increase marketshare

What's So Great About Business Class?
http://www.psychologytoday.com/blog/how-happiness/200806/whats-so-great-about-business-class

The reason for my hesitation is that, as growing research shows, people adapt quickly and easily to anything positive that ever happens to them. When you move into a beautiful new apartment with a view, when you obtain 20/20 vision through LASIK, when you buy a hip new hybrid, and even when you tie the knot, you get an immediate boost of happiness from the new and improved circumstances, but unfortunately the thrill only lasts for a short time. Over the coming days, weeks, and months, you find yourself taking your new apartment, eyesight, car, and marriage completely and utterly for granted.
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perkiset
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« Reply #3 on: December 01, 2009, 09:46:17 PM »

LOL Well, yeah - 60 or 70% of all cell phones is better than 3%.  D'oh!

But that assumes that M$ gets much percentage at all. Right now they have a tiny raction of the smart phone penetration that the iPhone has and a trivially small percentage of the overall market ... so it's better to have 3% of overall market share than .00003% of it.

Nobody - NOBODY has a 60-70% single-vender/single-device share of the cellphone market. That's retarded. The point is that Ballme is just an idiot that is spouting about markets that he can't really play in.

Perhaps he just needs to go bounce up and down again to impress his following.
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« Reply #4 on: December 01, 2009, 10:24:39 PM »

LOL Well, yeah - 60 or 70% of all cell phones is better than 3%.  D'oh!

But that assumes that M$ gets much percentage at all. Right now they have a tiny raction of the smart phone penetration that the iPhone has and a trivially small percentage of the overall market ... so it's better to have 3% of overall market share than .00003% of it.
Too lazy to look up figures, but out of smart phones, i think MS almost has same market share (as in phone running some sort of variant of wince)
Anyway that is not the issue.
I can cite countless examples.
rolex,
waterman pens,
All high end fashion items
etc.

You have two options, either massive output, at sacrafice of profit.
Or you make a high end product with small sales, but high profit.

cray computing (before cray died) they only had a market share of 0.0000000001% probably Smiley
Cray Research Inc anticipates a 10 to 20 percent decline in earnings for 1992 due to higher component costs, increasing competition and unexpectedly low sales for its computers. Cray expected a year-end net of $114.3 million or $4.20 a share in spite of weak 1st qtr 1992 results, but Cray's stock closed down 50 cents at $38.50 even before its announcement. Cray will be selling its low-end computers through DEC, but analysts are doubtful that the marketing would be as effective as Cray's and estimate a 25 percent drop in earnings for FY 1992. Cray projects a 10 percent growth in revenue from 1991's $862.5 million. Cray also estimates sales of at least 100 of its low-end supercomputers, ranging in price from $300,000 to $500,000, and seven of its Y-MP C90 supercomputers, for $30 million each. Cray's strategy is to reduce costs without reducing its workforce to counter its profit margin drop. Cray also plans to release middle- and low-end supercomputers based on massively parallel processing.

Cray only manufactured like 100+ puters.

Anyway marketshare and profit is like playing poker.
In poker the object of the game is not to win hands but to make $$$$$.
Many times i have played, i lost majority of the hands, but i was the winner of the game.
And the real art of poker, sometimes even if you think you might win the hand, if someone raises, depending on the odds the smart thing might be to fold.
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nop_90
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« Reply #5 on: December 01, 2009, 10:35:32 PM »

Again market share is meaningless.
I wish i could find out what the profit of http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Franz_Lisp is, the makers of Allegro Lisp.
Basic 1 year license is $12K.
Almost every major uni has a copy of it (as u can see from papers that cite allegro lisp).
I am guessing that any company that is involved in AI secretly uses Allegro Lisp.
Also the company probably only has 20 employees Smiley.


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