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Author Topic: iPad may cannibalize notebook share, affect AAPL price...  (Read 2644 times)
perkiset
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« on: April 04, 2010, 10:49:37 AM »

Well thought out analysis: http://seekingalpha.com/article/196954-mac-notebook-cannibalization-from-the-ipad-could-be-significant?source=yahoo

... and not a big mental leap. The question, will be if iPad brings new users to the fold, or if iPad pushes potential notebook buyers into a less expensive mode. Alternately, is the iPad really only a replacement for the lowest end note and what Apple just lost in front-side hardware sales they will more than gain in long term software sales (since they control the channel)?

I'm betting that they're betting on the latter, but time will tell. Watch AAPL this week folks.
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« Reply #1 on: April 04, 2010, 03:47:23 PM »

I do not think it will affect apple laptop sales significantly.
Or if they do lose any sales it will be on the low end laptops where there is stiff competition and smaller profits.
The only people who might purchase an ipad instead of a laptop are not serious computer users.

For the same price,weight, and size of an ipad, 3 months ago I bought a EEE asus mini book.
The unit is pretty rugged, it has 7 to 12 hours of battery life and it comes with a 75% size keyboard.
If i wanted 3G with it, i just buy a 3G USB stick for like $20.
It is pretty rugged and you can just throw it into your bag.
It is meant for being an ebook ready or what ever stupid shit ipad does, without being locked into ipad's BS.

This is where apple is very smart from an marketing perspective.
The mini book was rated as being slow, low ammount of memory etc. why ?
Compared to ipad it blows it away spec wise.
But ......
Apple did not sell their ipad as a mini laptop, so therefore it will not be compared to other laptops, instead it will be compared to shit devices like the kimble etc.
Also since in people's minds the ipad is NOT a laptop, Apple can get away with shit that is not acceptable with a normal laptop, as in telling users you can only install crappy software authorized by apple etc.

Apple is probably going to go thru the same phases as M$.
Right now Apple is in the same stage as when M$ was getting people to line up for windoze 98.
But already cracks are starting to appear in Apple. A few of the wiser people are starting to see that apple has the same agenda as M$,google etc.
But the rest of the herd will ride along, until the herds inertia will drive it off a cliff  ROFLMAO ROFLMAO

Probably apple can pull this scam for atleast 3-5 more years. Maybe even more if they do proper damage control.
It is hard to tell, Google,M$ never had as many hard core fanatical morons as Apple does.

Need some of Godwin's law  ROFLMAO
From a genocide perspective, for the last centuary, Hitler if he is lucky only gets maybe 3rd place.
Chairman Mao from China unquestionably gets #1 with a systematic killing of 70+ million.
Joe Stalin and the american republic empire are probably tied for #2. It is rather hard to calculate.
Uncle Joe out and out systematically killed people in work camps etc. He maybe killed like 12 Million.
On the other hand uncle sam used more devious methods. Overthrowing of various regimes, systematically killing 2-3 filipinos from 1900 to 1910.
Using massive fire bombs dropped from airplanes to kill massive ammounts of people. So rather hard to calculate, but much more then the paltry 8 million hitler killed.
Poor hitler only killed like 8 to 10 million, but then again he only had 13+ years to work with  ROFLMAO

It is human behaviour that is most interesting to study when looking at various regimes.
The pattern of mass hysteria etc. How the puppet master can get the sheep into a state of hypnosis where they only see the things what the master wants.
How people enjoy to being deluded  ROFLMAO
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perkiset
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« Reply #2 on: April 04, 2010, 04:16:47 PM »

It is the mark of someone really significant, that you must reduce the argument to Godwins to ty to make the point. Apple == Third Reich? ROFLMAO.
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« Reply #3 on: April 05, 2010, 12:26:38 AM »

It is the mark of someone really significant, that you must reduce the argument to Godwins to ty to make the point. Apple == Third Reich? ROFLMAO.
The point was mass hysteria and people doing retarded things.
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perkiset
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« Reply #4 on: April 05, 2010, 07:41:07 AM »

Analysts posit that I am FOS: http://www.appleinsider.com/articles/10/04/05/successful_ipad_debut_expected_to_propel_apple_stock_past_300.html

Seem hyperbolic to anyone else? Feels a little bubbleish to me...
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« Reply #5 on: April 05, 2010, 03:57:58 PM »

Analysts posit that I am FOS: http://www.appleinsider.com/articles/10/04/05/successful_ipad_debut_expected_to_propel_apple_stock_past_300.html
Seem hyperbolic to anyone else? Feels a little bubbleish to me...
http://www.google.com/finance?q=NASDAQ:AAPL
The numbers tell the tale.

For starters google,apple etc do not pay dividends.
So basically you are not buying the stock as an investment, but as purely speculation.
When you are speculating (another word for gambling), you are working on a bigger idiot theory.
Or you are hoping that the company might be bought out, example myspace, facebook etc.

All the gold in the entire world is worth approx $1,755,401,234,000
Market valuation of apple is worth                        $216,000,000,000
Market valuation of google is worth                      $181,000,000,000

So the market is saying that apple and google is worth approx 22% of all the gold ever mined in the entire history of the world.

To put this in a better perspective market value of union pacific railroad is worth $37.30B
http://www.google.com/finance?q=NYSE:UNP

So the markets are saying that apple or google is worth 10x as much as union pacific.
According to wikipedia (i know a crappy source), union pacific is the largest realestate holder in USA.
It also owns a trucking company, a container ship transfer terminal etc.

What "real" assets does google or apple hold ? What does google or apple produce ? For apple they do not produce the computers they sell. The just get some company in asia to make it.

Or a better question to ask, if apple/google was destroyed over night. How long would it take the economy to recover. Either company could be replaced very quickly.

By the same token, if union pacific was destroyed. As in all of the tracks where destroyed, all of its rolling stock destroyed, all of its container ship terminals destroyed. It would be a calamity. Literally people all around the world would be starving to death as raw materials could not be shipped, food and consumer goods could not be shipped etc. To rebuild all of these facilities would take decades.

So basically majority of the world markets are on a huge bubble.
The first classic bubble is http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_Sea_Company

I am pretty sure that perks is not playing more then 5% of his portfolio in tech stocks.
When u are speculating it is a form of legal online gambling Smiley. A good way to relax and amuse ones self.
Also perks can tell all the babes at parties he is investing in Apple, babes like that sort of thing sounds very sexy.

On the bigger picture, what is happening to the american economy is very alarming.
Obama is just applying band aids to the situation, instead of fixing the situation.
The world also seems to think that the US currency is way over priced.
The healthcare bill Obama is pushing through is crazy. I am not against national healthcare, but the economy can not afford this.
It should have been done 20+ years ago, or should be delayed till economy recovers.

American Manufacturing companies can compete on the world market. And there are American Manufacturing Companies which are competing on the world market and winning.
A case in point is Snapper Lawn Mowers
The Man Who Said No to Wal-Mart http://www.fastcompany.com/magazine/102/open_snapper.html

It produces a high quality lawn mower manufactured in USA.
The article does not state this, but if cost of a high end Snapper Mower is $350 the price of labour in that mower is $35.
So even if snapper would outsource all of its labour to asia and pay nothing (they get slaves lol), the most they could lower the price is less then 10%.
But they would have to pay more for shipping etc. So probably it would end up costing them more.

Kinda like watching 2 car both speeding towards an intersection.
You can see a nasty accident is going to happen, and meanwhile u tell the drivers of the cars, and they just do not pay attention Smiley
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perkiset
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« Reply #6 on: April 05, 2010, 05:50:34 PM »

For starters google,apple etc do not pay dividends.
So basically you are not buying the stock as an investment, but as purely speculation.
When you are speculating (another word for gambling), you are working on a bigger idiot theory.
Or you are hoping that the company might be bought out, example myspace, facebook etc.
You are correct, but not necessarily about the bought-out part: many (like me) ride the waves. Buy your losers, sell your winners, meng. Apple stock has been wonderful to me.


So the market is saying that apple and google is worth approx 22% of all the gold ever mined in the entire history of the world.
GREAT analogy ... big grin on that one.


I am pretty sure that perks is not playing more then 5% of his portfolio in tech stocks.
That would be an excellent speculation Wink


When u are speculating it is a form of legal online gambling Smiley. A good way to relax and amuse ones self.
Also perks can tell all the babes at parties he is investing in Apple, babes like that sort of thing sounds very sexy.
LOL Actually, there is much more method to my madness than that.

IME, I lose money when I *truly* speculate: in other words, put money down on things I do not really grok. So I've lost a lot of money at times when I got overly aggressive and thought my brains were bigger than my balls. Lost a very unfortunate amount in the first bubble. More than all my parents retirement, actually. Was both an incredible drag and a great lesson.

So with AAPL (and a couple others) I stay very, very focused on exactly what they're up to, what everyone is saying, I look quite deeply into the offering, the buzz etc etc ... then set numbers out there for limit orders that, if are actually hit, I'll do well. About few months ago I had placed a bet that AAPL would get all the way back down to $190. It did, for about 10 minutes. My limit snapped in and I owned a bunch of it right quick. Should I execute my sell off right now, I'd have an annualized return on that investment of about 84%. It's now getting high enough that I'm getting uncomfortable and will probably unload it all before it pops.


On the bigger picture, what is happening to the american economy is very alarming.
Obama is just applying band aids to the situation, instead of fixing the situation.
The world also seems to think that the US currency is way over priced.
The healthcare bill Obama is pushing through is crazy. I am not against national healthcare, but the economy can not afford this.
It should have been done 20+ years ago, or should be delayed till economy recovers.
The great debate. There is plenty good data that if it is not done now we will bankrupt ourselves from another vector. Your primary point is most valid: american economy very alarming. There's not a whole lot of happy in the binoculars when looking forward.


American Manufacturing companies can compete on the world market. And there are American Manufacturing Companies which are competing on the world market and winning.
A case in point is Snapper Lawn Mowers
The Man Who Said No to Wal-Mart http://www.fastcompany.com/magazine/102/open_snapper.html

It produces a high quality lawn mower manufactured in USA.
The article does not state this, but if cost of a high end Snapper Mower is $350 the price of labour in that mower is $35.
So even if snapper would outsource all of its labour to asia and pay nothing (they get slaves lol), the most they could lower the price is less then 10%.
But they would have to pay more for shipping etc. So probably it would end up costing them more.
This is a very important point. Americans do not think it's sexy to make things anymore. We don't make anything here. It's akin (different, but akin) to the Japanese situation 20-25 years ago. The notion of a purely consumer society is great for the first few minutes of the party ... but as soon as everyone's out of cash and got no job, there's no more consuming. We need to get back to creating and providing value to the rest of the world, other than arms, McDonalds and pr0n (Ours is the best. Hairy French chicks? I don't think so.)

All that said, it is profoundly difficult for most people to get their arms around the vastness of the US, and the almost impossibly large economy we've propped up. Debt is not a bad thing, if you have a job and a plan to get sorted out. The part about Obama that I like is that there's a plan. You can argue right or left, this or that, but at the end of the day, the Repubs plan has been no plan and cut taxes, at least the Dems are pursuing a plan for domestic growth, economic stability and infrastructure. Important components in the long term, and difficult to imagine how ANY kind of recovery could appear without these things in the works.

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« Reply #7 on: April 05, 2010, 07:36:30 PM »

You are correct, but not necessarily about the bought-out part: many (like me) ride the waves. Buy your losers, sell your winners, meng. Apple stock has been wonderful to me.
Speculation and Gambling like many words are misused and have a bad reputation.
Gambler -> someone who calculates the odds of a certain outcome, if he is able to make a wager at better odds then the real odds he makes the bet.
Other people who make bets that pay odd less then odds are often called gamblers, a proper term for them is idiots Smiley

Speculator -> someone who examines current trends etc. As you said you are "riding the waves". So they are gambling based on what they thing other people will buy vs actual investment.

In the past i made a few small "investments" in stock market. Mainly utility company as a place to store my $$$ so it is not destroyed by inflation..
I know a lot about the theory of stocks etc. But i do not want to spend my time studying this stuff Smiley

This is a very important point. Americans do not think it's sexy to make things anymore. We don't make anything here. It's akin (different, but akin) to the Japanese situation 20-25 years ago. The notion of a purely consumer society is great for the first few minutes of the party ... but as soon as everyone's out of cash and got no job, there's no more consuming. We need to get back to creating and providing value to the rest of the world, other than arms, McDonalds and pr0n (Ours is the best. Hairy French chicks? I don't think so.)

All that said, it is profoundly difficult for most people to get their arms around the vastness of the US, and the almost impossibly large economy we've propped up. Debt is not a bad thing, if you have a job and a plan to get sorted out. The part about Obama that I like is that there's a plan. You can argue right or left, this or that, but at the end of the day, the Repubs plan has been no plan and cut taxes, at least the Dems are pursuing a plan for domestic growth, economic stability and infrastructure. Important components in the long term, and difficult to imagine how ANY kind of recovery could appear without these things in the works.
Pretty much sums it up. Making stuff is not sexy.
I can not remember who posted the craiglist ad about pull tractors. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tractor_pulling
Anyway i like to study shit. So i looked up places that manufacture in USA pull tractors.
For like $10K you can get a custom made zillion horse power pull tractor engine. As in they start with a block of steel, they end up with a complete engine.
Honestly it literally blows my mind that he can make it so cheaply.
The guy has a pretty big website, so i am assuming he makes $$$ doing it Smiley
But then again people make fun of him, call him a redneck etc.

Debt again gets a bad rep. Simplest example i rack up money on my CC for luxary items that is bad debt.
But if i make a loan to buy a new machine for my buisness etc, that is good debt.
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rcjordan
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« Reply #8 on: April 09, 2010, 06:39:44 AM »

I just found a picture of NB and his ipad

http://www.businessinsider.com/the-most-expensive-ipad-stand-ever-2010-4

<added>
> may cannibalize notebook share

No, it'll just repurpose them.
« Last Edit: April 09, 2010, 06:41:50 AM by rcjordan » Logged
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« Reply #9 on: April 09, 2010, 06:59:17 AM »

That dude is a genius!!!
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I could eat a bowl of Alphabet Soup and shit a better argument than that.
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